during winter. Several studies have shown significant trends in temperature and various temperature related indices over Canada during the 20th century. Mean annual air temperature has increased by an average of 0.9C over southern Canada for the period 1900 98 (Fig. 1). The greatest warming was observed in the West and the largest rates occurred during winter and especially spring (Zhang et al., 2000). Much of the country has also experienced significant trends toward longer frost free periods (Bonsal et al., 2001b). This could affect drought occurrence since these trends translate into a longer ice free season for lakes and rivers, thus increasing the potential for open water evaporation. From 1900 98, annual precipitation has significantly increased over most of southern Canada, with the exception of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan (Fig. 1). This pattern is also generally evident during all seasons within the year (Zhang et al., 2000). The period 1915 97 was associated with substantial interdecadal variability

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